Vietnam's GDP forecast lowered amid global policy uncertainty
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts Vietnam’s economic growth at 6.2% this year and 6% next year.
Shrimp processed for export at a Minh Phu Group plant. Several international institutions have lowered Vietnam’s economic growth forecast to between 6 and 6.2% in 2025 due to global policy uncertainty. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Several international institutions have lowered Vietnam’s economic growth forecast from around 7% to between 6% - 6.2 % in 2025, due to global policy uncertainty and slowing exports on escalating trade tensions.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast Vietnam’s economic growth at 6.2% this year and 6% next year.
Despite the downward revision, Vietnam remains among the economies with the most positive prospects in the year ahead, with a forecast still significantly higher than for other countries in the region, driven by robust private consumption and public investment, according to the OECD.
However, a volatile global trade environment is expected to weigh on overall momentum.
Vietnam's fiscal policy would continue to support growth through hastening public investment, the OECD said, warning of emerging inflation pressure that might prompt a shift to a more neutral fiscal setting.
The State Bank of Vietnam maintained an expansionary monetary policy from June 2023, including rate cuts and credit growth targets. While this was expected to continue, the OECD urged a close watch on inflation risk stemming from planned hikes in pensions and minimum wages.
Meanwhile, in a recent report about the Vietnamese economy, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) pointed out that the Vietnamese dong had depreciated notably since the US announced new reciprocal tariff measures in early April.
The State Bank of Vietnam would consider loosening monetary policies, but the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong remained a concern.
UOB expects the central bank to hold its refinancing rate steady at 4.5%. A return to pre-pandemic rates of 4% or lower would be possible if the labour market weakens and the forex exchange market stabilises, UOB noted.
The bank also lowered Vietnam’s growth forecast to 6% in 2025, down from an earlier projection of 7%./.
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To achieve the ambitious targets for this year and beyond, the PM has highlighted the priorities of boosting economic growth, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and guaranteeing major economic balances.
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Vietnamese Ambassador to the US Nguyen Quoc Dung reviewed key milestones in the bilateral relationship, underscoring the essential and sustained contribution by businesses from both countries, from the time before the normalisation of bilateral ties in 1995 until today, when the two sides are comprehensive stategic partners of each other.
According to targets adopted at the fifth Party Congress of the Management Board of the Ho Chi Minh City Export Processing and Industrial Zones Authority (HEPZA) on June 22, the zones aim for average capital attraction of 8–10 million USD per hectare, with a 70% disbursement rate of registered capital achieved on schedule.
This year’s event attracted more than 350 entries from cities and provinces across the country, reflecting growing interest in and commitment to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
The new Government decree also simplifies loan procedures while expanding credit incentives to include organic and circular agriculture, allowing them to access preferential terms similar to those of high-tech and value-chain based agricultural production.
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The Binh Duong Association of Supporting Industries (BASI) is expected to promote the usage of domestically manufactured components while supporting businesses in accessing international markets, strengthening linkages, and promoting deeper integration into global supply chains.
PwC Vietnam forecasts a vibrant M&A market in Vietnam’s healthcare sector in 2025, driven by rising demand for high-quality medical services and a growing middle class. Pharmaceutical companies, private hospitals, and specialised medical facilities, particularly in ophthalmology and oncology, are predicted to be key targets for M&A.
The central province of Quang Nam is set to become a hub for the medicinal plant industry, with Ngoc Linh ginseng designated as the core crop, under the Prime Minister's decision issued earlier this year.
The North-South Expressway project is scheduled for completion by 2030, aiming to establish the groundwork for Vietnam’s modern railway industry and stimulate regional economic development, positioning the country for a significant economic leap in the era of national rise.
The probe, initiated on June 11 following a petition by the US Coalition for Fair Trade in Hardwood Plywood, targets products classified under HS Code 4412 and 9403 imported from China, Indonesia and Vietnam.
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A key change in the draft decree is a provision requiring bank transfers for gold transactions valued at 20 million VND (765 USD) and above, to enhance transparency and verify customer identities.
In the first four months of 2025, trade turnover between Vietnam and Cambodia surpassed 3 billion USD, marking a 7% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
On June 19 alone, a total of 2,005 trucks completed customs clearance at Lang Son’s border gates — the highest single-day figure ever recorded in the province. Of these, 634 carried exports and 1,371 imports.
The OECD Economic Surveys: Vietnam 2025 report focuses on analysing the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals, the impact of international integration on attracting foreign investment and trade, and the country’s prospects for developing a low-carbon economy.
Antoine Colin, Senior Vice President for Global Supply Chain Digital Transformation & Resilience at HP Inc., affirmed HP’s strategic commitment to building a supply chain and ecosystem in Vietnam and the region.
Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s Trade Promotion Agency Bui Quang Hung emphasised that logistics has evolved from a technical function into a core capability for Vietnamese exporters to maintain their competitive advantage in the US market.
A trade official has suggested companies work closely with shipping lines, airlines, and freight forwarders to monitor routes, transit times, and potential surcharges while exploring broader cargo insurance to cover risks like war and terrorism.
In addition to institutional reform, the agency is also rolling out key solution groups to combat counterfeit goods, imitations, and intellectual property infringements in the digital environment.
