Vietnam’s economy to stay resilient in 2025, 2026 amidst global headwinds: ADB
Vietnam's projected GDP growth has been revised down to 6.3% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026. Inflation is forecast to decline to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025 released on July 23. (Photo: adb.org)
Hanoi (VNA) - Vietnam's economy is expected to maintain its resilience through 2025 and 2026, although growth may slow in the near term due to tariff pressure, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025 released on July 23, the bank stated that trong export and import growth, along with a surge in foreign investment disbursement, drove economic performance in the first half of 2025.
Foreign direct investment pledges rose by 32.6%, while disbursement increased by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating strong international confidence in the country’s economic prospects. Public investment disbursement reached its highest level since 2018, at 31.7% of the annual plan and an increase of 19.8% from the same period in the previous year. Front-loading of exports to cope with the tariff uncertainty drove trade performance.
However, the ADB cautioned about potential risks stemming from instability in the international trade environment and higher US import tariffs that could impact both exports and investment flows.
Notwithstanding the heightened risks from tariff uncertainty, the domestic reforms, if effectively and swiftly implemented, the bank said, can mitigate such risks with strengthened domestic factors.
The projected GDP growth has been revised down to 6.3% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026. Inflation is forecast to decline to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
In the broader regional context, th♛e ADB forecast the Asia - Pacific’s economies will grow by 4.7% this year, a 0.2 percentage point decline from the projection issued in April. The forecast for next year was lowered to 4.6% from 4.7%. The downgrades were driven by expectations of reduced exports amid higher US tariffs and global trade uncertainty, as well as weaker domest𝔍ic demand./.
“Strong trade, a recovery in export manufacturing, and robust foreign direct investment fueled Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024,” said ADB Country Director for Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty as quoted by the bank in its related news release.
The ADB will focus on helping Vietnam’s agriculture and environment sectors adapt to climate change, reduce carbon emissions, and strengthen marine ecosystem protection and water security, said its Country Director for Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty.
The discussion focused on the Tham Luong - Ben Cat Basin Drainage and Climate Adaptation Project (CRUS 1) and the West Saigon Basin Drainage and Climate Adaptation Project (CRUS 2). Participants also explored potential cooperation between HCM City with Milan, Italy, on environmental and climate initiatives.
In the context of the growing global digital economy, digital transformation and the promotion of e-commerce are key drivers helping Vietnam boost integration, enhance competitiveness, and expand export markets, according to the Vietnam E-commerce and Digital Economy Agency
Tilapia is considered highly competitive in export markets thanks to its affordability, ease of processing, and appeal across both high-end and mass-market segments.
In the first seven months of the year, Phu Tho attracted an impressive 651.7 million USD in foreign direct investment, including 35 newly licensed projects totaling 119 million USD in registered capital and 45 existing projects with an additional capital of 533 million USD.
Under the agreements, VinEnergo will invest in, install, and operate 43 MWp of rooftop solar power capacity and 45 MWh of BESS capacity across the three plants.
Under a draft to amend and supplement the Government's Decree 125/2020/ND-CP on administrative sanctions for violations of tax and invoice regulations, the Ministry of Finance has proposed classifying the failure to issue invoices into five different levels. Infraction levels will correspond to fines of 1 million VND to 80 million VND, depending on the nature and number of invoicing violations.
A new airline developed and invested by Sun Group — has officially announced a strategic partnership with Amadeus IT Group (Amadeus), one of the world’s leading travel technology companies. This agreement not only lays the foundation for a modern digital infrastructure but also marks a pivotal step in SPA’s global expansion strategy, enabling the airline to access international distribution networks and reach customers worldwide.
Of the total, 107,700 were new firms, with combined registered capital of 928.4 trillion VND (35.4 billion USD), up 10.6% in number and 5.5% in capital compared with the same period last year.
Experts agree that a combination of technology, enforcement, education and cross-border cooperation is essential to protect copyrighted content in Vietnam’s growing digital ecosystem.
Poland is Vietnam’s largest export market in Central and Eastern Europe, with key staples including seafood, textiles, footwear, coffee, and cashew nuts.
Cashless payments are growing at an impressive rate, averaging 30–40% annually. Vietnam’s per capita cashless transaction volume now trails only China, with total value of 295.2 quadrillion VND (11.26 trillion USD), or 26 times of its GDP.
A draft resolution on piloting a digital asset and cryptocurrency market is being developed, aiming to create a broad-enough regulatory sandbox that enables investor participation and provides practical grounds for policy refinement in areas such as risk management and anti-money laundering.
Viettel was ranked third for overall mobile performance with a score of 82.56 just behind UEA’s e& (88.05) and Quatar’s Ooredoo (87.05) and ahead of Singapore’s Singtel (82.53). Vinaphone took second in 5G speed with a score of 78.11, trailing only behind e&.
PM Chinh proposed MUFG work closely with the Ministry of Finance to improve legal frameworks and support the establishment and operation of the international financial centre in Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City.
The Prime Minister emphasised the significance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, promoting growth, and improving the harmony between monetary and fiscal policies.
