Hanoi (VNA) – ⛄Vietnam has recorded a strong and impressive socio-economic rebound in the context that the COVID-19 pandemic has been controlled effectively, said Minister-Chairman of the Government Office Tran Van Son at a regular press conference of the Government on October 1.

The press conference touched upon the country's socio-economic development in the first nine months of this year. Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 13.67% in the third quarter of 2022, which expanded the index by 8.83% in the first three quarters – the highest level since 2011. Notably, growth has been recorded in the three areas of agro-forestry-aquaculture, industry and construction, and service with respective growths of 2.99, 9.63 and 10.57%. According to Son, the country's macroeconomic stability was maintained; inflation well controlled in the context of many pressures; the average consumer price index (CPI) in the first nine months kept at 2.73%, equivalent to the same period in 2018-2021; and major balances secured. International organisations have positively assessed Vietnam's socio-economic situation and shown their optimism about the country's economy in 2022 and 2023. Moody's, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) respectively forecasted Vietnam's GDP to expand by 8.5%, 7.2%, 7%, and 6.5% in 2022. Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the Government of Vietnam's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ba2 from Ba3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Meanwhile, Vietnam was ranked 8th among the 121 countries and territories in the Japanese-based media group Nikkei's COVID-19 Recovery Index. Son said the Prime Minister has pointed out 10 key missions in the coming time to complete goals set for the year, focusing on ensuring macroeconomic stability and main balances, controlling inflation and promoting growth. He noted that attention will be paid to keeping a close watch on the regional and global economic situation, actively making analyses and forecasts, and proposing timely and appropriate solutions to arising developments. The monetary policy needs to be implemented cautiously, firmly, proactively, and flexibly and combined harmoniously and effectively with the fiscal policy, he said, stressing the importance of ensuring security and safety in terms of currency, credit, finance, public debt, energy and food; and strengthening the management and control of prices of essential goods and services. He noted that the disbursement of public investment capital will be sped up and the implementation of projects reviewed to make appropriate adjustments.

Economic growth scenarios

Addressing the press conference, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said the advisory report of his ministry to the Government has suggested two GDP growth scenarios in the fourth quarter of this year. Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 8% this year in the base-case scenario, provided that there will be no upheavals in the market but favourable external factors for the economy during the remaining months of the year, according to Phuong. Phuong told reporters in the worst-case scenario, GDP will grow at 7.5%, provided that many challenges and uncertainties are expected in the fourth quarter of this year. He said there will be challenges and opportunities. Still, the former is likely to outweigh the latter and be even tougher in the wake of inflationary pressure worldwide and a gloomy global economic outlook. Phuong noted that global inflation, particularly in major economies and Vietnam's key partners, is unlikely to ease over the next one or two months but certainly will linger on in 2023. The official also voiced concern over other threats to the Vietnamese economy, emphasising the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and non-conventional risks like storms, flooding, and epidemics. The MPI has forecast the Vietnamese economy will expand around 6.5% in 2023 in a growth scenario submitted to the Government, he said. The deputy minister also revealed that 46.7% of the total public investment had been disbursed this year./.