Bangkok (VNA) - The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has reduced the country's GDPgrowth outlook for next year from 3.6 percent to 3.2 percent, mainly due to ananticipated delay in tourism recovery.

Thereduction of 0.4 percentage points in the country’s GDP growth forecast wasattributed to the impact of a prolonged outbreak abroad and a new outbreak inThailand which is likely to delay a recovery in tourism, said TitanunMallikamas, assistant governor of the monetary policy group.

Thecentral bank forecasts foreign tourist arrivals in 2021 to reach 5.5 million, adecline from an earlier projection of 9 million.

Althoughthere has been progress in COVID-19 vaccine development, vaccine distributionis expected to be limited, he said.

The BoTpredicts vaccination coverage in advanced economies to be at 30 percent of thepopulation in the second quarter of 2021, with the coverage ratio in key countriesfor Thai tourism at 30 percent in the third quarter.

Underthis scenario, Thailand is expected to re-open to foreign travellers from thesecond half of 2021, with arrivals gaining in the final quarter, said Titanun.

Twoscenarios were envisioned for re-opening to foreign tourists, dependent onvaccine development.

A14-day quarantine period for foreigners with a special tourist visa is thefirst scenario, while the other forgoes a quarantine period for mandatoryvaccination and infection test certificates, he said.

Thenumber of foreign tourist arrivals is expected to continue increasing in 2022,in line with vaccine development and herd immunity, he said. Under thisscenario, vaccination and quarantine are not required.

For2020, the BoT upgraded its GDP contraction forecast for Thailand to 6.6 percentfrom 7.8 percent following improved signs of an economic recovery in the thirdand fourth quarters, particularly exports and domestic consumption.

Full-yearmerchandise exports are projected to contract by 7.4 percent, up from 8.2percent, while private consumption is forecast to shrink by 1.4 percent insteadof 3.5 percent./.