Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Although 2023 is forecast to be adifficult year, many securities companies still set a target of positive profitgrowth in 2023, besides some others adopting more prudent plans.

Viet Capital Securities Joint Stock Company (VCI) plans to earnrevenue of 3.24 trillion VND in 2023, and pre-tax profit of 1 trillion VND.Compared to the performance of the previous year, the revenue target decreasedby 12% while the profit target decreased by 6%.

VCI said that the plan was built on the forecast that the VN-Indexwill fluctuate around 1,100 points by the end of 2023.

This company also pointed out certain risks that may affect theVietnamese stock market such as slower global growth leading to greaterdisruptions to production, trade and FDI; higher-than-expected inflationcausing interest rates to stay higher for a longer period of time; financialproblems of real estate developers affecting banks and the economy; fiscal policytighter than expected and other risks such as the further escalation of theRussia-Ukraine conflict.

VCI forecast that the securities brokerage sector will seedifficulties in 2023 with fierce competition among companies. The strategy ofthe companies will be to lend high margins, apply the policy of exempting orreducing transaction fees, and improve the brokerage team.

Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI) forecastthat the COVID-19 pandemic being under control in neighbouring countries willstimulate foreign capital inflows - which is a niche market of CSI. The companywill still mainly focus on promoting main business lines such as brokerage andmargin lending. At the same time, it will maintain and develop the investmentconsulting segment; as well as exploit and develop the asset managementsegment.

It plans revenue down by 39% to 23.5 billion VND and pre-taxprofit down by 5% to reach 12 billion VND.

FPT Securities Joint Stock Company (FTS) has set a target of totalrevenue of 770 billion VND in 2023, down 27% compared to 2022. Pre-tax profitdecreased by 34% to 420 billion VND.

According to FPTS' board of directors, the stock market in 2023 isless attractive with reduced liquidity compared to 2022 plus businesses arefacing many difficulties and challenges. There will be no new products and onlya few new stocks listed and registered for trading. In addition, competition ontransaction fees between securities companies is becoming more intense.

Looking back at the previous year, among the three securitiescompanies mentioned above, only CSI maintained positive growth in revenue andprofit after tax, reaching 38 billion VND, up 17% year-on-year and 13 billionVND, up 34%, respectively.

VCI recorded a pre-tax profit of nearly 1.06 trillion VND, down 43%compared to the previous year. With the results achieved, this companyfulfilled nearly 56% of the profit plan for the whole year.

Profit before tax of FPTS also decreased by 12% to 638 billion VNDand only reached nearly 94% of the profit before tax plan. The Board ofManagement said that the reason was due to unfavourable market movements in thesecond half of 2022, plummeting market liquidity, causing brokerage revenue todecrease accordingly.

Optimistic plans

Despite a difficult forecast for 2023, MB Securities Joint StockCompany (MBS) sets a revenue target of 2.7 trillion VND, up 37% compared to2022, profit before tax at 900 billion VND, up 36% year-on-year. In addition,MBS aims to enter the top 5 brokerage market share list this year.

As for the previous year's business results, revenue reached 1.98trillion VND and pre-tax profit touched 661 billion VND, down 12% and 10%, respectively,compared to results in 2021.

Vietnam Industrial and Commercial Securities Joint Stock Company(VIG) sets ambitious targets for 2023 with operating revenue of nearly 119billion VND and pre-tax profit of more than 50 billion VND, up 65% and up 19times over 2022, respectively.

Phu Hung Securities Joint Stock Company (PHS) also announced abusiness plan with total revenue of 788 billion VND and profit after tax ofabout 116 billion VND, nearly twice the estimated result in 2022.

In 2022, the Vietnamese stock market witnessed a decrease ofnearly 33% of the VN-Index, accompanied by a deep drop in market liquidity. Inthe first two months of 2023, domestic investors opened less than 100,000 newaccounts in total.

The high interest rate level plus the global economic recession isforecast to continue to have a negative impact on the activities of businessesin the future. After the fourth quarter reporting season, the profits of listedcompanies dropped sharply, making the market valuation (P/E) no longer reallyattractive and becoming a barrier to attracting capital in the short term.

However, according to Lumen Vietnam Fund, by the second half of2023, interest rates are expected to be properly managed, business activitiesbegin to prosper, helping the profit after tax of companies to grow by 10-15%over the same period last year. Besides, the more stable corporate bond marketwill create a good basis for a new up cycle of the stock market./.