Hanoi (VNA) - 2025 is expected to be a breakthrough year for Vietnam’s economy. Unfortunately, the global economic outlook remains uncertain and volatile. In this context, the recently announced Q1 GDP growth results offer some initial positive signals, while also presenting a number of challenges on the path to the annual target. To clarify the significance of the numbers, their implications for the 8% GDP growth target, and key measures for the remainder of the year, VietnamPlus took an interview with Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Head of the National Accounts Department, General Statistics Office (GSO) under the Ministry of Finance.

Reporter🌳: What is the GSO’s assessment of Vietnam’s Q1 GDP growth rate of 6.93%, especially given the current global economic complexities? In comparison to the full-year growth target of 8% (with the Q1 scenario set at 7.7%), what does this result signify?

Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh:✱ Amid global challenges - rising geopolitical tensions, super powers competition, commodity price volatility, and extreme weather - the 6.93% GDP growth achieved in Q1 is a remarkable highlight. It marks the highest Q1 growth since 2020, indicating that Vietnam's economy is maintaining a strong recovery and positive momentum. A deeper look into the growth structure shows balanced contributions from all three economic sectors. Agriculture-forestry-fishery rose by 3.74%, industry-construction by 7.42%, and services by an impressive 7.7%. Many provinces also recorded high growth, reflecting the broad impact of economic policies and local-level efforts. For instance, Bac Giang province grew by 13.82%, Hoa Binh by 12.76%, and Nam Dinh by 11.86% - that demonstrates the dynamism and diverse growth potential across Vietnam’s regions.

While the Q1 growth surpasses the lower-end scenario (6.5%), it still falls short of the 7.7% target set under Resolution 01/NQ-CP, missing by about 0.7 percentage points. Thus, strong acceleration is required in the following quarters to achieve 8% for the whole year. Furthermore, the slowdown in key sectors such as mining, electricity production and distribution, and construction has weighed down the performance of the industry-construction sector, keeping it below expectations.

Reporter:🐲 Objectively speaking, what were the main favorable and unfavorable factors affecting Q1 growth? How might these continue to influence growth prospects in the upcoming quarters?

Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh🃏: Q1 was marked by a mix of opportunities and challenges. On the positive side, the government and Prime Minister acted swiftly and decisively to implement socio-economic development measures from the outset.

Public investment disbursement was accelerated, providing an important boost to growth and infrastructure development. Foreign direct investment (FDI) showed positive signs, with a notable increase in disbursed capital. Exports remained a bright spot, growing strongly in both goods and services and maintaining a trade surplus. Domestic consumption, while not surging, remained stable with support from increased government spending. Moreover, free trade agreements (FTAs) continued to prove effective in expanding Vietnam’s market reach. On the downside, the global economy remains unstable. Recovery in major economies has been slower than expected, reducing their import demand. Geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts are putting pressure on supply chains and production costs. Global commodity prices, especially input materials, have risen, increasing burdens on businesses. High global interest rates have also affected borrowing costs and investment flows. Domestically, businesses still face difficulties in accessing loans with reasonable interests. Labor productivity remains low, and logistics infrastructure is yet to meet demand - factors that restrain growth. Additionally, some legal regulations still lack clarity, posing barriers for business operations. As a result, the growth outlook for the coming quarters will be shaped by the interplay of these favorable and challenging elements. While the government has taken timely policy actions and improvements are expected, in the face of global uncertainties - particularly tax policies from key partners - Vietnam must stay proactive and flexible in macroeconomic management. Concrete, effective solutions are needed to maximize opportunities and overcome challenges.

Reporter:༒ Given that Q1 growth fell short of the target, what key measures should be prioritized in the remaining quarters of 2025 to realize the 8% GDP goal?

Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh✤: Achieving the 8% growth target in the current context requires a comprehensive and aggressive strategy, addressing both supply and demand sides of the economy. All levels of government, sectors, the business community, and the public must be involved.

On the supply side, the first priority is sustainable development of key economic sectors. Authorities should continue to restructure agriculture towards greener practices, applying high technology to improve productivity and value. In industry, selective investment attraction should focus on processing and manufacturing, especially supporting industries and high-tech sectors. Accelerating digital transformation and automation in production is also crucial to enhancing competitiveness. For services, there’s a need to diversify tourism offerings, improve service quality, and better promote domestic and international markets. Second, the business environment must be further improved. Administrative procedures should be streamlined, and compliance costs reduced. Legal bottlenecks for investment projects - especially in real estate and infrastructure -must be resolved.

Third, speeding up key national infrastructure projects - particularly in transportation, energy, and logistics - is critical. Enhancing transport and warehousing services will reduce logistics costs and facilitate goods circulation. Fourth, innovation capacity and human resources must be strengthened. This means increased investment in R&D, promoting science and technology adoption - especially digital and AI - and developing a high-quality workforce suited to Industry 4.0. On the demand side, public investment must continue to play a central role. Disbursement should be accelerated with more aggressive, effective measures, focusing on projects with broad socio-economic impacts. Second, high-quality FDI should be further attracted by improving the investment climate and offering competitive incentives for high-tech, environmentally friendly projects with high value-added and deep integration into global value chains. Third, sustainable export growth and market diversification are vital. Vietnam should capitalize on FTAs, promote trade, and support businesses in expanding into potential new markets while enhancing the quality and value of exports. Fourth, domestic consumption needs a boost. Policies to support consumption should continue - considering further VAT reductions - and measures to increase real household incomes must be implemented to encourage spending. Fifth, tourism growth should be promoted by expanding visa facilitation, increasing international media promotion, and developing attractive, diverse tourism products.

Reporterဣ: Has the GSO updated growth scenarios for the rest of 2025 in light of the Q1 result? What key factors will be decisive in realizing the growth target?

Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh𝓀: Based on the Q1 growth of 6.93% and forecasts for both domestic and global economic conditions, the GSO has updated the GDP growth scenario for the rest of 2025.

To achieve 8% growth for the year, the targets are: 8.2% in Q2, 8.3% in Q3, and 8.4% in Q4. This means the average growth for the remaining three quarters must exceed 8.3%. Several key factors will be critical to achieving this scenario. Foremost is the effective and synchronized implementation of policy measures. Solutions proposed by the Government and relevant ministries must be executed decisively, consistently, and efficiently at all levels. Close coordination among sectors and strong partnership with the business community will be essential. Regarding capital absorption, both public investment and high-quality FDI projects must move faster. Concrete actions are needed to resolve bottlenecks and speed up project implementation. Strengthening core economic sectors - especially agriculture and processing-manufacturing industries - will provide a solid foundation. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and keeping inflation at a reasonable level is essential to build confidence among businesses and consumers, thereby stimulating investment and consumption. Given the global economic uncertainties, Vietnam must monitor developments closely, forecast potential impacts, and respond with timely and appropriate policies to mitigate negative effects. Reaching the 8% growth target in 2025 will be no small feat. It demands tremendous efforts from the entire system. However, with existing strengths and momentum, and with strong leadership and effective solutions, we have grounds to believe that the goal is achievable - laying the groundwork for sustainable growth in the years to come.

Reporter: Thank you very much!