Hanoi (VNS/VNA) — With hugeinflation pressure on the way in the remaining months of this year, a closewatch must be kept on the prices of key products like oil and pork to hit thegoal of keeping inflation below 4 percent, experts have said.

According to Nguyen Ba Minh,director of the Institute of Economics – Finance, two factors will weighon inflation in the second half of this year. The first is the prices ofcommodities in the global market, which are forecast to increase as theCOVID-19 pandemic is gradually contained and production and trade recover.

The second is natural disasters anddiseases in Vietnam, such as African swine fever, drought, saltwater intrusionand extreme heat which would affect agricultural production as well as supplyand demand of goods in the market.

Inflation is currently underconsiderable pressure and the consumer price index (CPI) jumped 0.66 percentin June against the previous month, the largest increase since 2016. However,Minh said the Government’s target of keeping inflation under 4 percent would beachievable, provided that price and market management policies are appropriateand timely.

In a recent conference on inflationforecast, Nguyen Duc Do, the institute’s Deputy Director, said pork andoil prices would need special attention.

Do cited analysis of the GeneralStatistics Office that the increase of 68.2 percent in pork prices in the firsthalf of this year pushed up the overall CPI by 2.86 percent. However, tumblingoil prices made up for the increase in pork prices, which helped the lowerprices of the transport services category by 9.26 percent.

With the CPI expanding by 3.17 percentin the first half of this year, he said the CPI must be kept at below 0.6 percentper month till year-end to keep the CPI for the full year at 4 percent.

The target was achievable, Do said,adding that the Government must act to lower pork prices by importing pigs andpromoting reproduction.

Vu Vinh Phu, chairman of the HanoiSupermarkets Association, said if oil prices did not see significant increasesin the second half of this year, forecast at about 40 USD per barrel, loweringpork prices would help control inflation.

Phu urged the Government to havestrict measures to handle unreasonable increases in pork prices.

Economic expert Ngo Chi Long,however, noted that price management and inflation control would be more difficultthis year as the COVID-19 pandemic was weighing on the economy.

Risks existed, especially if thecoronavirus were to start spreading in the country again, Long said, addingthat caution in price management was vital. Long said it was also important tohave a reasonable roadmap for a power price adjustment and increases intextbook prices.

The Government must also removedifficulties for businesses to accelerate economic growth, he added.

At a recent meeting with theSteering Committee on Price Management early this week, Prime Minister NguyenXuan Phuc insisted inflation must be kept under 4 percent this year withouttightening fiscal and monetary policies to promote growth./.