Based on the positive socioeconomic performance in the first quarter of this year, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has forecasted two growth scenarios for the second quarter and the full year.
All sectors, and localities have been and are urgently carrying out their tasks, striving to fulfill the requirements, duties, and large workload set for 2024 in the best possible way. (Photo: Vietnam+)
Hanoi (VNA)༺ - The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has proposed two economic growth scenarios for this year.
Scenario 1:🌱 Annual economic growth is projected to reach 6% (lower than the National Assembly’s growth target), with growth in the last nine months estimated at around 6.12%. Specifically, growth in the second quarter is expected to be 5.85%, and in the third and fourth quarters, it is projected to be 6.22% and 6.28%, respectively, meeting or slightly below the scenario outlined in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP.
Scenario 2:🌸 Annual economic growth is projected to reach 6.5% (higher than the target set by the National Assembly), with growth in the last nine months estimated at around 6.75%. Specifically, the second quarter is expected to grow by 6.32%, while the third and fourth quarters are projected to see growth rates of 6.79% and 7.08%, respectively. This means that quarterly growth rates exceed the upper bound of the scenario outlined in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP by approximately 0.1%.
The scenarios are based on the economic results of the first quarter, and economic growth forecasts for the second quarter and the whole year, said Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung.
Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung (Photo: Vietnam+)
According to the ministry, the economy is projected to grow by 6-6.5 per cent in line with the target initially set by the National Assembly.
The first quarter of this year saw positive growth in various indices, with GDP expanding by 5.66 per cent, the highest January-March level since 2020. Macroeconomic stability is maintained, with inflation kept under control at 3.77 per cent compared to the last year.
In the first scenario, GDP would grow by 6 per cent, lower than the National Assembly’s growth target. This scenario forecasts growth of 6.12 per cent for the rest of the year, with 5.85 per cent in the second quarter, 6.22 per cent in the third quarter and 6.28 per cent in the fourth quarter.
The second scenario envisions achieving GDP growth of 6.5 per cent for the entire year. Under this scenario, GDP growth for the second and third quarters is projected at 6.32 per cent and 6.79 per cent, respectively, with a notable surge to 7.08 per cent in the last quarter.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment recommends many key and specific tasks and solutions to complete the set goals and tasks (Photo: Vietnam+)
While the ministry recommends scenario two, aiming for 6.5 per cent GDP growth this year, it acknowledges that this ambitious target can only gain under favourable global and domestic conditions. Successful attainment also hinges on how new supportive fiscal and monetary policies are carried out.
To reach the target, the ministry recommends many key and specific tasks and solutions to complete the set goals and tasks.
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