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Investors suspicious of uptrend forecast

The benchmark VN-Index confirmed a steady uptrend with a forth consecutive rally week, but suspicion lingers in the context of modest liquidity and dominant role of large-cap stocks.
Investors suspicious of uptrend forecast ảnh 1The benchmark VN-Index confirmed a steady uptrend with a forth consecutive rally week, but suspicion lingers in the context of modest liquidity and dominant role of large-cap stocks (Photo: ndh.vn)

Hanoi (VNA) - The benchmarkVN-Index confirmed a steady uptrend with a forth consecutive rally week, butsuspicion lingers in the context of modest liquidity and dominant role oflarge-cap stocks.

Easing investor worries about a possiblecorrection after a long rally, the VN-Index hit a new 10-year high at 806.32points on September 14, the highest level since February 15, 2008. It decreasedslightly on September 15 on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading but stillclosed the week up 0.6 percent at 805.82 points.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Indexalso increased 0.54 percent for the week, closing at 104.49 points on September15.

The market started the week in the negativezone under rising profit-taking pressure but quickly regained in the followingsessions thanks to growth of heavyweight stocks.

Major stocks such as Masan Group (MSN),Vietcombank (VCB), Petrolimex (PLX), PV Gas (GAS), VinGroup (VIC), Hoa Phat Group(HPG), Bao Viet Holdings (BVH), Vinamilk (VNM) and Saigon Beer-Alcohol-Beverage(SAB) took turns to lead the market.

However, liquidity declined and remainedmodest, even when two FTSE and V.N.M ETFs conducted their portfolio trading onFriday. This indicates cautious psychology among investors.

An average of about 187.4 million sharesworth over 4 trillion VND (177.8 USD) were traded in the two markets persession, down 30 percent in volume and 13 percent in value compared to theprevious week.

“Although the market had a week ofrallying, the divergence remained wide along with weakening cash flows and lowliquidity,” said Tran Duc Anh, a stock analyst at Bao Viet Securities Co.

In fact, the recent uptrend has beenstrongly supported by positive movement of large-cap stocks. If the marketliquidity makes no improvement, the market will likely enter a short-termdowntrend, Anh wrote in a note.

The VN-Index has been on a steady upswing,with growth of 5.8 percent in the last four weeks and over 21 percent since thebeginning of this year.

According to analysts on the financialwebsite vietstock.vn, the VN-Index is heading for a new level of 815 points.Growth of stock in financial services, natural resources, real estate andconstruction and food-beverage sectors are expected to continue to prop up themarket.

Though the macro-economic condition isbacking a market uptrend, analysts at BIDV Securities Co (BSC) have warned ofnegative impact of foreign trading on the local market.

“Though in doubt, the VN-Index will likelycontinue heading to new highs next week with rotation of large-cap growth.However, the market risk will also increase at the same time if it cannotattract domestic investors and foreign investors continue their net sellingactivity,” BSC’s analysts wrote in a report.

Foreign traders concluded the second weekof net selling with a value of 333 billion VND last week, lifting the two-weeknet sell value to 407 billion VND in the two markets.

Vietcombank (VCB) topped the most sold lastweek with a value of over 214 billion VND, followed by VinGroup (VIC) andVinamilk (VNM) with over 100 billion VND each.-VNA
VNA

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