AMRO raises 2025 economic growth forecast for Vietnam to 7%
The bumping up of the country’s growth is really a reflection of the much better outturn in the first half of the year, as it notched a multi-year high GDP growth of 7.52% in the first half of 2025.
Goods are loaded onto a vessel for export at Hai Phong International Container Port (Photo: VNA)
Kuala Lumpur (VNA) – The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) raised its 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam’s economy to 7%, up from the 6.5% projected in April, in the latest quarterly update of its flagship ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) released on July 23.
AMRO Chief Economist Dong He said in a press briefing on the same day that the bumping up of the country’s growth is really a reflection of the much better outturn in the first half of the year, as it notched a multi-year high GDP growth of 7.52% in the first half of 2025, driven by healthier domestic consumption, robust exports and strong improvement in the manufacturing and services sectors.
Acknowledging that Vietnam stands out as one of the most exposed to US tariffs, He maintained that the nation has the policy space to support economic activity if needed.
A cargo terminal in HCM City (Photo: VNA)
The chief economist added that some of Vietnam’s ongoing reforms to enhance its investment environment and improve infrastructure efficiency place it in a more resilient position looking ahead.
Beyond the short term, he proposed Vietnam integrate much more deeply with other regional economies in attracting foreign direct investment.
Also in this updated AREO, the office forecast the economic growth of ASEAN+3, which includes ASEAN member states, China, the Republic of Korea (RoK) and Japan, to expand by 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.
The growth forecasts represent a downward revision from AMRO’s April projections of 4.2% for 2025 and 4.1% for 2026. This adjustment reflects heightened global uncertainties, particularly the evolving US tariff measures.
💦 Meanwhile, ASEAN is projected to maintain a stable economic growth rate of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, which are slightly revised down from the 4.7% projected in April for both years./.
Based on these assumptions and after factoring in the impacts on manufacturing and FDI inflows, UOB's Global Economics & Market Research Unit estimated that Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 will be 0.9 percentage point higher than its initial baseline forecast, reaching 6.9% compared to the previous projection of 6.0%.
Vietnam's economy delivered its strongest first-half performance in over a decade, with GDP surging 7.52%, the highest since 2011. However, in order to deliver on the full-year growth target of 8%, the economy will need to expand 8.42% in the remaining months of the year, according to the National Statistics Office of Vietnam (NSO).
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